中国煤炭行业分析报告(2003年3季度）

    2001－2002 年是煤炭行业整体扭亏为盈的开始，2003 年则是整个煤炭行业盈利增速较快，出现了前所未有的全行业第三季度 “淡季不淡”。一季度，煤炭销售延续了去年四季度形势，呈现旺季不旺的态势；二季度，随着冬季取暖的结束，价格小幅下滑，煤炭库存略有增长，但市场运作基本平稳；进入三季度，秋季的来临，电力和冶金需求大幅提升，煤炭市场一派“繁荣”。
     预计今年底明年初，由于国民经济增幅同比回落、国家产业结构调整、能源生产和消费结构调整以及节能等造成煤炭需求不旺，不合理煤炭产量仍将不容忽视，亚洲金融危机影响不会消失的影响，今年第四季度的煤炭经济低位运行状态不会改变，且将延续到明年上半年。

目录

Ⅰ 2003年3季度煤炭行业运行概况................................................................................1

一、整体发展特点..........................................................................................................1

1．国民经济助推煤炭市场.................... ........................... ..........................................1

2．原煤生产增势强劲.......................................................................... .......................1

3．优质煤炭局部紧张.... .................................................. .............. ............................2

4．电力增长刺激煤价上扬.............................................. ......... .................................2

二、存在的问题................................................................ ................ ...........................2

1．部分煤矿超产，库存回升过快................................................... ..........................2

2．出口增长缓慢，国内面临压力......... ....................................... ............................3

3．煤矿安全生产形势不容乐观................................................. ................................3

三、四季度走势预测.................................................................. ................................3

1．市场需求：涨幅有限..................................................... ......... ................................3

2．市场供应：基本稳定...................................................... .........................................4

3．电煤供求：加速联合.................................................... ............................................4

4．抬价行动：继续受阻..................................................... .......... ............................4

Ⅱ 2003年三季度煤炭市场供应情况.........................................................................5

一、煤炭产量................................................. ...............................................................5

二、产量增长原因............................................... ................. ......................................5

1．宏观政策的影响........................................... .............. ..........................................5

2.电力煤炭需求大幅增长............................................ .......... ....................................6

3.各大市场投资主体的竞相争夺............................... .................................................6

4.国际环境的影响............................................................. .................. .......................7

三、全国重点煤矿生产情况............................... ...................... ................................7

1.生产特点....................................... ....................................... ......................................7

2.超产分析....................................................... ........................ ....................................10

3.增产分析...................................................... ........................ .....................................11

四、全国地方煤矿生产情况.......................................................................................12

五、全国乡镇煤矿生产情况.......................................... ...........................................13

Ⅲ 2003年3季度煤炭行业运销情况............................ ......... ....................................14

一、煤炭企业装车情况....................... ................................ ......................................14

1．分月情况.................................................................................... ............................14

2．分季度情况............................................................. ................... ...........................15

3．分地区情况......................................................... .......................... ........................15

4．山西省的情况................................................................... .....................................16

5．煤炭水运.......................................................... ............................... ......................17

二、煤炭销售情况.............................................. ............. ..........................................18

1．总体销售情况.......................................................................... ..............................18

2．国有重点煤矿情况.......................................................... ............. ........................20

3．地方煤矿................................................................. ..................... .........................20

三、出口情况................................................................ .............. ...............................21

四、库存情况................................................................................... ...........................23

1.库存总量............................................................................................. ......................23

2．地区分布................................................................. ..................... .........................25

Ⅳ 2003年三季度煤炭市场需求及价格走势..................... .........................................27

一、影响煤炭市场需求的因素..................... .................................... .........................27

1．钢铁产量快速增长....................................................................... ........................27

2．电力需求迅猛增长.................................................................... .............................27

3．出口将继续扩大........................................................................ .............................28

二、煤炭价格走势分析.......................................................... .....................................28

Ⅴ 2003年3季度煤炭企业经营情况..... .................................. ....................................30

一、煤炭企业整体经营情况................ ....................................... ...............................30

二、煤炭上市公司业绩....................................................... ........................................30

1、2002年煤炭上市公司业绩回顾...................................... .......................................31

2．煤炭行业上市公司投资价值分析............................................ ............................31